The most recent game between Italy and Mexico is the most critical for Team USA as it will determine if they will still have a playoff opportunity or face an elimination scenario. Because of Italy’s unexpected victory over Team USA, the U.S. roster must be specific with what they would be looking for. Italy now holds the ability to determine the final results of Pool B and will determine if USA will be able to reach the quarterfinals.
“It’s out of our hands now” U.S. Captain Aaron Judge said after the loss. The damaging effects of the game will determine who moves on and who is put in an elimination scenario. A team with as much talent as the USA squad, this will result in an elimination scenario proving to be the utmost disappointment. The game can be viewed on FS1 or fubo at 7 p.m. ET.
Understanding Crazy Pool B Tiebreakers
With the final round-robin game approaching, Mexico has a 2–1 record, the USA has a 3–1 record, and Italy has a 3–0 record. An Italy victory would secure Italy the most favorable outcome as they would finish with a record of 4-0. This would then result in team Mexico and team USA with the same record of 3-1. The USA would be the team to advance given that they won the most recent game against Mexico.
If Mexico wins the Italy vs Mexico WBC game, then there is a 3 way tie, and the officials will have to do some complicated math. They have to divide the runs allowed by the outs recorded, and the USA’s late game comeback vs Italy helped them with this tiebreaker. It is very clear that every run scored and allowed in this tournament is very critical.
Pitching Matchups and Rest Days
Mexico has a clear physical advantage heading into this game. They have an off day on Tuesday, so all of their pitchers are fully rested, which puts them at a clear advantage. Javier Assad is the expected starter, and he had a good showing against Brazil in his last appearance. Also, none of their top relievers have pitched since last Friday, so they will all be fully rested.
On the other hand, Italy’s bullpen is probably a little fatigued. They had to use 6 relievers in the game against the USA, so their bullpen will be reliant on Aaron Nola, the veteran starter, to pitch a lot of the game. WBC pitch count rules are going to limit Italy’s options quite a bit, especially if Nola has a rough day. Mexico could be in a good position going into the late innings due to the amount of pitching depth they have compared to Italy.
Possibilities of the USA Reaching the Quarterfinals
There are three major outcomes based on the game of Italy vs Mexico WBC game and how they affect the USA:
- Italy Wins: Leading USA and Italy to the next round.
- Mexico Wins: (Scores 5 Runs or More): Advancing USA and Mexico to the next round.
- Mexico Wins: (Scores 4 Runs or Less): Eliminating USA as Italy and Mexico advance.
In conclusion, as long as Mexico doesn’t win the game, the USA will advance to the next round. Most analysts think that Mexico will score high for their own safety. The eyes of the baseball world will be in Houston this evening. This can either be the end of the championship run for team USA or the tournament.
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