Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
It could be the name of a prestigious law firm, a 1970s cop show, or a pair of visionary urban planners transforming war zones into mega cities. In truth, these two are managing President Donald Trump’s freelance peacekeeping firm. Under their watch: when and where peace comes to the world, how many lives are saved, and potentially, their boss’s shot at a Nobel Peace Prize.
Double-Barreled Diplomacy Day
Tuesday, the two had a phenomenal day. They were in the middle of rapid-fire diplomacy in Geneva and had meetings with government officials from Russia, Ukraine, and Iran all day. They are going to be in Washington next for what insiders are calling the “Board of Peace” or Trump’s new personal big bucks global diplomacy initiative.
These two powerful American dealmakers have the tasks of ending one brutal war and stopping another one from starting. Achieving either one of these is incredibly difficult, but so is achieving both.
Iran: Principles Without Progress
Iran’s hopes for a deal with the U.S. have only slightly progressed. Even as he prepares a massive military presence for possible action against Iran. Trump has received some support from Iranian officials who claimed they have an understanding concerning guiding principles. Optimism was dashed when Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that “talks went well” in some spheres, but Tehran continues to dismiss Trump’s red lines. Progress, for now, is less than progress.
Ukraine: Talks Are Happening But Is Russia Serious?
The first of Russia-Ukraine talks has sponsored a new line of inquiry on the war. Does Moscow want to really end the fighting and if so, how? Or is diplomacy just a means for gaining control of the battlefield? That’s a lead from every single ceasefire discussion. Still, the Witkoff-Kushner talks being held with so much global skepticism to the peace, is something. And so is Trump’s intent to make a show of being a dealmaker on the world stage. Three Hotspots, Deepening Stakes.
Three Hotspots, Deepening Stakes
The current diplomatic efforts come at an uncomfortable time for the world and for Trump’s presidency as well. Their biggest success, the fragile Gaza ceasefire, is currently being tested as fighting renews. Full-scale warfare appears to be the only way to conquer Hamas, and, in the meantime, Israel’s security is at risk, and, for the Palestinians, the suffering is unbearable.
The war in Ukraine is now in its brutal winter phase (again). There remains death in the fighting, the Russians continue to hit the civilians, and the longer the war goes on, the closer we get to a NATO-Russian war. Better than anyone else, Trump has a chance to end the war, but that’s a pretty low chance.
Then there’s Iran. Trump is being pulled toward a confrontation in which he needs to be involved for credibility. The problem is that the U.S. population does not support another war in the Middle East, and the polls reflect that.
The Stiffest Challenge So Far
Witkoff and Kushner have gone past expectations before. But the combination of these three crises -Gaza, Ukraine, Iran — represent a challenge like no other in the history of contemporary American diplomacy. The world is paying attention. So is the Nobel committee.
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